Workplace Fatality & Injury Prediction
A $50B workers’ comp market underwritten
on 12–24 month stale data.
OSHA publishes inspection and citation data. BLS publishes injury rates by establishment. Workers’ comp filings are state-level public records. SEC filings disclose material safety incidents. Combined into a facility-level risk score, they let workers’ comp carriers price more accurately, identify mid-policy deterioration, and target loss-control investment — before the claim.
Institutional license. Workers’ comp carriers, reinsurers, ESG investors, staffing companies.
Sample facility risk scores
For any U.S. employer establishment: a continuously updated risk score combining OSHA citation history, BLS injury rates, available workers’ comp filing data, and SEC safety disclosures for public companies.
| Establishment | Industry (NAICS) | State | Risk Score | OSHA Citations (3yr) | BLS IR vs. Peer | Willful / Repeat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution center A (Composite) | Warehousing (493) | Ohio | 87 / 100 | 14 citations | 2.4× peer avg | Yes — 2 repeat |
| Meat processing B (Composite) | Animal slaughter (3116) | Nebraska | 74 / 100 | 8 citations | 1.9× peer avg | Yes — 1 willful |
| Construction C (Composite) | Building construction (2361) | Texas | 61 / 100 | 5 citations | 1.4× peer avg | No |
| Manufacturing D (Composite) | Metal fabrication (3321) | Michigan | 32 / 100 | 1 citation | 0.9× peer avg | No |
| Logistics E (Composite) | Courier & express (4921) | California | 18 / 100 | 0 citations | 0.7× peer avg | No |
Sample using composite establishments. Risk score is calibrated against historical workers’ comp claims experience. BLS IR = BLS incidence rate. Peer cohort defined by 4-digit NAICS and state. Score weights are disclosed in the methodology.
What the risk model combines
OSHA citation history
Inspection frequency, citation severity (serious, willful, repeat, other), and penalty amounts — by establishment. Repeat and willful citations are strong predictors of future claims. OSHA Establishment Search makes this public; Branmoor normalizes it at scale.
BLS injury rates
BLS SOII publishes injury rates by industry and establishment size. For the subset of employers required to disclose, Branmoor cross-references the facility-level OSHA data against industry benchmark to compute a peer-relative signal.
State workers’ comp filings
State workers’ comp claim filings are public records in many states. Claim severity, employer identification, and disposition are included where available. Coverage is uneven and disclosed by state in the methodology.
SEC safety disclosures
Public companies disclose material safety incidents in 10-K and 8-K filings. SEC disclosure of a fatality or serious incident is a verified, dated signal that can anchor the OSHA and BLS picture for public-company employers.
Who buys it
Workers’ Comp Carriers
Price more accurately with a continuously updated facility-level score. Identify mid-policy deterioration — a spike in OSHA citations 18 months into a three-year policy is visible before the claim arrives. Target loss-control spend where it returns the most premium.
P/C Reinsurance Underwriters
Treaty and facultative reinsurers underwriting workers’ comp books get a primary-source facility signal that the cedent’s own risk data doesn’t always surface — particularly useful for auditing aggregate exposure in large-employer books.
ESG-Mandated Institutional Investors
Workplace safety is a material ESG factor. The OSHA + BLS + SEC signal is verifiable and primary-source — not a self-reported safety metric from the issuer’s sustainability report. Portfolio-level screening and flag-on-change alerting available.
Large Staffing Companies
Staffing companies are legally liable for their placed workers’ injuries at client sites. A pre-placement facility risk screen changes the exposure before the worker is placed — not after the incident. Site-specific briefing format available.
Primary data sources
| Source | What it provides | Update cadence |
|---|---|---|
| OSHA Establishment Search | Inspection history, citation severity and penalty, establishment ID | Continuous (published with ~30-day lag) |
| BLS Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses | Industry and establishment injury rates, DART rates | Annual |
| State workers’ compensation filings | Claim filings, severity, employer identification where public | Quarterly to annual by state |
| SEC 10-K and 8-K filings | Material safety incident disclosure for public companies | Continuous (event-driven for 8-K) |
| OSHA fatality and severe injury reporting | Mandatory fatality and amputation/hospitalization reports within 24 hours | Continuous |
Inquire about access
Workplace Fatality and Injury Prediction is sold under named institutional license. Pricing scales with number of establishment-level records, update cadence, and delivery format (batch file vs. API vs. single-facility lookups).