State Rate Review Watch
Rate filings predict premium changes
6–12 months out. Nobody aggregates them.
Every state insurance commissioner publishes proposed premium filings with actuarial memoranda. They disclose medical trend assumptions — which leak everything about what payers think utilization is doing. Branmoor aggregates them across all 50 states, normalizes the formats, and makes the actuarial sections machine-readable.
Institutional license. Brokers, self-funded employers, reinsurers.
Recent filings — sample
Proposed rate changes and medical trend assumptions from state rate review portals and NAIC SERFF.
| Payer | State | Market | Proposed Change | Medical Trend | Effective | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthem Blue Cross | California | Individual | +14.1% | 10.4% medical / 12.1% Rx | Jan 2027 | Under review |
| UnitedHealthcare | New York | Small Group | +9.8% | 8.9% medical / 11.3% Rx | Jan 2027 | Under review |
| Humana Health Plan | Florida | Individual | +17.6% | 13.2% medical / 14.8% Rx | Jan 2027 | Approved |
| Medica Health Plans | Minnesota | Individual + Small Group | +8.3% | 7.6% medical / 9.4% Rx | Jan 2027 | Under review |
| BCBS of Illinois | Illinois | Large Group | +11.7% | 9.8% medical / 13.0% Rx | Jul 2026 | Approved |
| Aetna Life Insurance | Texas | Individual | +13.4% | 11.1% medical / 12.7% Rx | Jan 2027 | Pending |
Sample from SERFF and state portal filings. Medical trend assumptions extracted from actuarial memoranda; Rx trend is separate where disclosed. Full database includes approved, pending, and withdrawn filings across all 50 states.
Why this matters
Medical trend is the real signal
The proposed premium change is the headline. The actuarial memo is what matters — it discloses what the payer's own actuaries believe utilization will do over the next 12 months. That assumption leaks the payer's view of the market before anyone else sees it.
6–12 months of lead time
Rate filings are submitted months before effective dates. An approved filing in Q2 becomes the January rate. Brokers who read the filings in Q2 can position their book before clients see the renewal notice.
Self-funded employer validation
TPAs and stop-loss reinsurers use their own trend assumptions. Rate filings let self-funded employers cross-check whether the assumption embedded in their renewal is consistent with what payers are disclosing to state regulators.
The product is the aggregation
50-state scraping, normalization across inconsistent filing formats, and machine-readable extraction of actuarial sections. Today that is an FTE-week of work per state. Branmoor makes it one query.
Who buys it
Insurance Brokers & Consultants
Anticipate the premium environment for renewals 6–12 months ahead. Position book-of-business strategy before clients see their renewal notice. Know which payers filed the highest trend assumptions before recommending carriers.
Self-Funded Employer Benefits Teams
Validate the medical trend assumptions embedded in TPA renewals and stop-loss quotes against what payers are actually filing with state regulators. One of the few data points that puts the employer on equal footing.
Reinsurance Underwriters
Anchor pricing against directly disclosed cedent assumptions. Stop-loss and treaty reinsurers currently price against historical experience; rate filings add a prospective payer-disclosed signal to the picture.
Primary data sources
| Source | What it provides | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| NAIC SERFF | Rate and form filings for most states | ~45 states route through SERFF |
| State insurance department portals | Filings not routed through SERFF | Remaining states (CA, NY, WA primary) |
| Federal Rate Review (CMS) | ACA-required rate filings — ACA individual and small group | All states (ACA markets) |
| State actuarial memoranda | Medical trend assumptions, loss ratio detail, claims experience by service category | Where unredacted; varies by state |
Inquire about access
State Rate Review Watch is sold under named institutional license. Pricing scales with number of states and market segments required.